"Beat to hell" stock with massive upside potential
Crushed by year-end selling, booted from indexes, governance issues, hated. Yet deep value, situational alignment of interests + "call option" upside creates favorable risk/reward
You don’t get deep value - $.10 on the dollar cheap - without a security being deeply hated by Mr. Market.
This is just such as case
The majority of revenue at this business comes from senior housing - a business that was hammered by the Covid crisis, and then sucker punched by an explosion in the cost of finding and hiring workers.
Occupancy plummeted while costs skyrocketed - not a winning formula.
Basic assumptions
If you think it is probable that senior housing will revert to the mean or potentially enter a more favorable period given changing demographics, this idea might interest you.
Construction of new Senior housing has plummeted while the number of seniors over 80+ years old is accelerating:
However, I don’t pretend to know the future - the bet here is that this security is deeply underpriced relative to its potential to rebound - which appears to be in progress.
Note: This is a more speculative/leveraged idea, and as such I am using the position sizing approach that I wrote about here.