Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter

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Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
"Beat to hell" stock with massive upside potential
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"Beat to hell" stock with massive upside potential

Crushed by year-end selling, booted from indexes, governance issues, hated. Yet deep value, situational alignment of interests + "call option" upside creates favorable risk/reward

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Nat Stewart
Jan 09, 2023
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Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
"Beat to hell" stock with massive upside potential
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You don’t get deep value - $.10 on the dollar cheap - without a security being deeply hated by Mr. Market. 

This is just such as case 

The majority of revenue at this business comes from senior housing - a business that was hammered by the Covid crisis, and then sucker punched by an explosion in the cost of finding and hiring workers. 

Occupancy plummeted while costs skyrocketed - not a winning formula. 

Basic assumptions 

If you think it is probable that senior housing will revert to the mean or potentially enter a more favorable period given changing demographics, this idea might interest you. 

Construction of new Senior housing has plummeted while the number of seniors over 80+ years old is accelerating: 

However, I don’t pretend to know the future - the bet here is that this security is deeply underpriced relative to its potential to rebound - which appears to be in progress. 

Note: This is a more speculative/leveraged idea, and as such I am using the position sizing approach that I wrote about here. 

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