Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter

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Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
High quality, recession resistant small-cap trading way under strategic value
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High quality, recession resistant small-cap trading way under strategic value

Numerous reasons to think a sale is not too far off - if not, a high quality business with outstanding leadership on the cheap

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Nat Stewart
Sep 29, 2022
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Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
High quality, recession resistant small-cap trading way under strategic value
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  • Outstanding margins, high return-on-capital business trading at a substantial discount to private market or strategic value

  • Business has low economic sensitivity, low correlation to the general stock market

  • Long-term CEO has an outstanding track record of shareholder friendly decisions and policies

  • CEO (also chairman of the board) incentivized to sell the company “at the right time” due to large share ownership and generous change of control bonus payments

  • I predict solid, low risk-returns until the company is sold

  • If not, CEO is still on the hunt for an accretive acquisition - also potential for massive capital return given cash is ~20% of market cap, zero debt

  • Bull case is tempered by a few clear risks - I review the key ones and how I account for them

  • Average dollar trading volume 1 year: ~$970,000/day, 30 days: ~$395,000/day

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