High quality, recession resistant small-cap trading way under strategic value
Numerous reasons to think a sale is not too far off - if not, a high quality business with outstanding leadership on the cheap
Outstanding margins, high return-on-capital business trading at a substantial discount to private market or strategic value
Business has low economic sensitivity, low correlation to the general stock market
Long-term CEO has an outstanding track record of shareholder friendly decisions and policies
CEO (also chairman of the board) incentivized to sell the company “at the right time” due to large share ownership and generous change of control bonus payments
I predict solid, low risk-returns until the company is sold
If not, CEO is still on the hunt for an accretive acquisition - also potential for massive capital return given cash is ~20% of market cap, zero debt
Bull case is tempered by a few clear risks - I review the key ones and how I account for them
Average dollar trading volume 1 year: ~$970,000/day, 30 days: ~$395,000/day