Two Idea Updates
I think these two stocks are at good buy points
A few notes
(Skip this if you just want the updates)
It is a few weeks past the one year anniversary of this newsletter - thank you to those who resubscribed.
A special thank you to Chris DeMuth. Chris inspired me to get started writing again when he asked me to do a guest post on the Sisecam Resources LP (SIRE) situation, which I first tweeted about here.
On another note, my friend Todd Wenning recently started a newsletter, Flyoverstocks.com.
Todd is a great investor and analyst who focuses on long-term quality investing, but with a keen eye on valuation - that is my description.
Some of you may have seen Todd’s “Price, Moat, Management” diagram which very succinctly describes his investment philosophy.
On his site, Todd states,
“In the coming weeks and months, we’ll be looking for quality companies with economic moats led by thoughtful stewards of shareholder capital”
Sounds great to me.
I signed up for his newsletter immediately and encourage you to do so as well.
Subscribers
I have been lucky to meet and exchange ideas with a good number of you. Each time I have met or talked with a subscriber, I have learned more from them than they have from me.
So far, the re-subscription rate is running around 90%, which is great. While I have moved the new subscriber price to $500/year, all existing subscribers are grandfathered in at their original price.
Newsletter track records are mostly nonsense
This is true even if they are computed accurately. For example - it is not possible to get in on the market close of the day a new idea is published. Note though, that none of the ideas written about to date have been highly time sensitive.
The best ideas (as measured by return from publication to 8/10/23) over this first year offered multiple buy points below the publication-date stock price.
The above is (to date) the highest returning idea - one of the “left for dead” articles.
The second best idea was similar - there was a 1.5 month window to buy below the publication-date closing price.
That said (by my calculations) the average stock covered during this first year had a total return of 33% from the closing price after the initial article to 8/10/23, which is when I computed the results.
IWM (A small cap ETF) averaged a 4.52% total return for the matching holding period(s). Given the market correction this week, the return figures are now lower (writing this on 8/19).
Regardless, I think the above provides some initial evidence that the Stockpicking Newsletter is a “good pond to fish in” for small-cap stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The record of idea performance was computed using data and techniques believed to be accurate. It may contain errors and should not be relied upon. Future ideas are unlikely to perform as well as past ideas. Read the full disclaimer at the end of this article.