Welcome to Nat Stewart's Stock Picking Newsletter
The objective is to bring you investment ideas with favorable upside potential relative to the risk - “hidden gems”.
These are usually smaller companies that have been overlooked and misunderstood by the marketplace.
We seek to identify undervalued stocks with catalysts in place that will trigger potential price appreciation, yet the market has not caught on yet.
A “look over my shoulder” newsletter
I will be writing about the same stocks that I research and invest in for my family and investment clients.
In most cases, I own shares in the companies that I write about. Make sure you are comfortable with this format - read the disclaimer at the end before subscribing.
Time efficient
Investment ideas are distilled to essentials. If you are like me, your attention is constantly pulled in different directions. My goal is to bring you ideas that are time-efficient to read.
Investment approach
I want to buy things for less than they are worth
I agree with the concept of value that Warren Buffett provides in the Berkshire Hathaway Owner’s Manual:
“Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.”
What I want to see in a buy opportunity:
The lower end of my fair value range is well above the current price
There is a reason to believe the market will care and revalue the security
Paying subscribers get my full post on the topic.
Make money when the crowd is wrong
Some of the featured stock ideas will be businesses that have fallen out of favor or are disliked by most investors.
A few of my top performing stock picks were actively disliked, even hated at the time I first took a position. If you don’t consider contrarian ideas, this service might not be for you!
This approach has allowed some of my published articles to pick almost the exact bottom share price for the next 6 - 12 months. Here are four examples where this was true:
Is this timing typical of all of my ideas? No. However, when I meet folks who have read my articles, they often refer to one (or more) of the above examples, even though I wrote those articles years ago.
My goal is to feature ideas with a reasonable odds of success relative to the risk and potential payoffs - there are no certainties. Some ideas take longer to play out, other times my investment hypothesis proves incorrect.
Regardless - this newsletter will be the exclusive place where I post new ideas and updates.
Example article:
SharkNinja (SN), published 9/5/2023 - an unusual US listed spinoff of an overseas company. It is currently (as of 8/30/24) up 170% from the publication date of my initial article, found here.
Recent subscriber feedback
Paid subscribers get:
At least one new article each month (usually 2-4 articles)
Opportunistic setups - what I am looking at now or recently purchased
Focused mostly on US listed small cap/micro stocks - usually $100M to $2B market cap
Research notes - interesting situations I have not yet committed to/decided on, interviews
Not for everyone:
Some folks are looking for more frequent content (I usually publish 2-4 articles per month).
Some folks are looking for formal “sell side” type research reports (I don’t do that - I write articles focused on the core investment case)
There is no “example portfolio” or “social” component to the newsletter
About me:
You might have seen my articles, or perhaps you follow me on Twitter, where I have contributed tweet-ideas such as the following:
In this example, (Blueknight Energy, or BKEP) ended up being acquired by its general partner at a price that will generate a +150% total return from the time of the above tweet, and +40% return after the General Partner disclosed their intent to take the business private. I highlighted this development in the tweet below:
I manage a small/micro cap portfolio for my family and a few clients, am a CFA charterholder and have been an active stock trader and investor for close to 25 years. I live in the Portsmouth, NH area with my wife and two kids. My favorite activities include body surfing with my kids, sea kayaking, and trading stocks.
Disclaimer
All ideas, reports, articles, and all other features of this subscription product are provided for informational and educational purposes. Nothing contained herein is investment advice or should be construed as investment advice. All decisions that you make after reading our articles and reports are 100% your responsibility.
The service is intended as a source of potential ideas to incorporate into your own process. The limited utility of the presented record is that it might provide evidence that this newsletter is a “good pond to fish in” for those interested in small-cap stock ideas. This newsletter does not provide buy/sell signals and articles should not be interpreted this way.
The positive feedback recieved by subscribers that was posted in this email was not verified for accuracy. Any positive returns these subscribers might have achieved was 100% their doing and based on their own decision process - this newsletter shares ideas but does not provide investment advice of any kind.
Our analysis is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and other sources of public information. It may contain errors and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. There is no guarantee, or suggestion of a guarantee, that our ideas will perform as they have in the past.
I/my clients or affiliates may hold positions in securities that I write about, which will be disclosed at the time of publication. To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Neither the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. Nothing presented on this herein constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
